When Numbers Tell a Story: A Quantitative Look at Certification Decisions in Ontario

An emerging body of legal scholarship aims to forecast the outcomes of cases on the basis of quantitative analysis,
rather than subjective prediction. Within this analytical framework, the present paper aims to apply quantitative legal analysis to class action certification decisions. Having collected a dataset of Ontario certification decisions issued between 2010 and 2015, the authors analyzed the outcomes on the basis of several independent variables. The paper examines whether particular types of class actions were more likely to result in certification, and which trends could be observed over the past half-decade of jurisprudence. The paper concludes with an outline of possible further research and the practical importance of quantitative studies.